With ECM 2018 only three months away, I've fired up my trusty horse racing program to generate some beer and petrol money. It relies on "screen scraping" several websites, so I needed to fix quite a few errors due to website changes since I last ran it. But it was well worth the effort, as after one week I'm already £500 up!
Anyway, going through today's races, it popped up with a selection in the 17:20 at Limerick - a horse named Alpine Cobra.
My program operates on a well proven system based on using trend analysis to find horses whose odds are likely to shorten before the race starts, thereby giving me an advantage over the bookmakers. So it's all about maths and statistics rather than individual horses - but I have to say I'm tempted to double my usual stake on this one! Not only is the name very appropriate for ECM 2018, but with all the Irish racing cancelled over the weekend it's the first day's racing since St Patrick's Day - so it may have all the luck of the Irish behind it, begorrah!
He's won quite a few chases and hurdle races, but this is only his second appearance on a proper racecourse. He was well beaten at 20/1 in his first one, and there are two hot favourites in this race - so it will be interesting to see how he gets on!
Last Edit: Mar 19, 2018 11:53:08 GMT by Alan Browse
Although by my system the selection was successful (the odds shortened from 6.5 to 5.5, giving an advantage/value of 22%), he finished in 4th place, beaten by 7 lengths. But with four winners from nine races, it was a good day for my ECM beer fund!
I'm now on the look out for a horse named "Davos Convoy" ......
Post by Michel Mousset on Mar 20, 2018 9:02:54 GMT
Dear Alan, if you keep on horse racing bets on this schedule for the 3 remaining months, no doubt you will drive to Davos with your brand new all aluminium Cobra, or even with a real period one and of course, offer the beers to all participants!
Ah, if only I could get bookmakers to accept unlimited bets from me! The problem is that when they see me making lots of early morning bets each day, with the odds for most of them shortening by the time the race starts, they know exactly what I'm doing and quickly close my accounts down or limit me to stupid stakes.
I've gone through six sets of accounts in various friends' and relatives' names over the years, and I've had quite a few close me down in one day after just three or four losing bets. That's just not cricket, old boy!
The guy who invented the system is the son of a friend of ours, and he's made a very good living from it for the last ten years or so. It was a totally manual system, so I wrote an application to automate it. I made a fair bit of money out of it over a few years, but with the betting constraints I now face, these days I do it just for fun and ECM beer money. I also like the technical challenge of making coding changes when the websites I use modify their web pages. Well I'm retired, so I need things to keep me busy!
Anyway, I would of course be delighted to buy you and Claudie a drink or two in Davos my friend. À votre santé!
Last Edit: Mar 22, 2018 20:07:35 GMT by Alan Browse: I car'nt spel!